In a time when democracy is experiencing a crisis worldwide, the citizens of North Macedonia enjoy the privilege of electing their political representatives fairly, freely and democratically for the third time in less than a year and a half. This year's local elections are being held in a rather politically and ethnically polarized atmosphere, at a time when citizens' trust in institutions and politicians is in free fall, and the country's European integration has been seriously stagnant for some time.
The race for the mayor's seat, in which several influential current ministers and MPs found themselves, once again showed the temptation of this position in North Macedonia, even at the cost of giving up the comfort of the Vice-Prime Minister's chair. On the other hand, it also reflected the growing aversion of citizens towards politics, electoral processes, and what political parties have been offering them for years. The record low turnout in the first round (48.30%) and the highest so far, 54 thousand invalid ballots, are a clear indicator of the dissatisfaction and distrust in state institutions and political actors in the country. Due to the low turnout, mayoral elections will be repeated in four municipalities in the western part of the country.
However, despite the low interest in voting, the first round of the elections brough moderate but significant changes in the political landscape. Government partners VMRO-DPMNE, VLEN and ZNAM maintained dominance in most of the municipalities and won important opposition party bastions. The opposition parties secured only a few small, mostly rural municipalities. A standout feature of the elections was the populist Levica[1] which emerged as the main opposition party ahead of SDSM in most Skopje municipalities and in the Council of Skopje and even reached the second round of the mayoral race in the capital city.
The party machinery traditionally dominates
As in previous election campaigns, the absolute dominance of the major parties was once again evident. On one side of the electoral scene stands the ruling coalition led by VMRO-DPMNE, which has governed most key municipalities over the past four years while holding an almost two-thirds majority in the Assembly and controls the executive branch and the presidential cabinet. On the other side, there is the completely fragmented and insufficiently consolidated opposition party SDSM, which, directly threatened by the increasing popularity of Levica and the large number of independent candidates, was trying to retain even those few municipalities where it already had its own mayors and a significant number of councilors.
In the Albanian bloc, however, the local elections were presented as a kind of "referendum on legitimacy" in terms of which political entity has the right to represent the Albanian population in the Government. For the opposition DUI, the potential conquest of key municipalities with a majority Albanian population would mean a strong argument for requesting early parliamentary elections. Between the two voting rounds, interethnic rhetoric has become particularly acute, and calls for the consolidation of Albanians and ethnic voting in the second round are becoming more and more frequent.
Somewhere in the electoral game were the independent candidates who, in the last local elections in 2021, won the highest ever - 67 mandates in the municipal councils—thereby managing to threaten the commodity of traditional political parties and the two-party system in many municipal councils. The independent candidates in the past term represented a real refreshment in the municipal councils where they operated. They were the only structure that actively advocated for greater municipal openness and citizen inclusion while constantly exposing scandals and possible cases of abuse of office. That is why they enjoyed significant support among citizens, especially visible on social networks. However, although everyone expected their number to grow with the great dissatisfaction with the political parties, the independent candidates did not seem to cope well in this extremely polarized and aggressive arena, so they had to be satisfied with only 51 council mandates. One of the reasons for this is the unfair system of distribution of state funds and media space, which significantly favors the largest parties, leaving limited space for smaller ones, and almost completely excludes independent candidates from the possibility of visibility and promotion.
Record-high voting snoozes and invalid ballots: What made the Sunday family lunch tastier than voting?
The past parliamentary elections also showed the weakness of political parties to mobilize attendance at their "big" rallies, so in these local elections they changed the public squares with field campaigns, convincing citizens face-to-face.
Despite this closer contact, the election turnout was at a record low, and a record number of invalid ballots were cast - 50 thousand for mayors and almost 54 thousand for councilors. If we take into account voters’ decisions for municipal councilors, the “crossed-out candidates” could be seen as the de facto sixth political force in the councils, illustrating the widespread dissatisfaction among the electorate with the current political structures.
Probably one of the reasons for this “yellow card” from citizens this year lies in what many analysts have assessed as “the most impotent and unoriginal election campaign in history.” Political parties focused primarily on mobilizing their own electorate, largely ignoring the undecided voters while emphasizing party leaders instead of the candidates, and emphasized identity questions and national issues over local concerns. The campaign was marked by enormous spending on advertising, mutual attacks, and black campaigns, while concrete policies on issues citizens consider most important - polluted air, public filth and illegal landfills, traffic chaos, dysfunctional public transport, and fragile public safety—were largely absent. As a result, many citizens chose to stay home on election day, and those who did vote often expressed their dissatisfaction by crossing out ballots. Such dissatisfaction has been visible for several years now—in many polls about the most popular politician or party, the most common response from citizens is "none" or "I don't know."
The election campaign looked more like an announcement for parliamentary than for local elections. Instead of focusing on improving local services and solving citizens' everyday communal and infrastructure problems, the campaign was occupied by mutual attacks between party leaders and mainly concentrated on topics such as restarting the system, relations with Bulgaria, and setting national "red lines". Additionally, the hate speech and the worsening of interethnic relations in the country were also exceptionally prevalent - for which the Helsinki Committee also raised a red flag.
Recycled policies and déjà vu promises from the candidates
Analyzing the speeches and programs of the candidates and political parties, it can be concluded that the ideologies of the parties have been completely sidelined - forgotten somewhere in the party basements. Instead of differing according to party and ideological values, their election promises and measures in almost all areas are almost identical, reducing the political offer to a competition in who will promise the same thing wider and louder.
Although environmental protection and clean air were major points in the candidate’s rhetoric until last month, especially following the two-month blockades in Skopje due to the burning of the illegal Vardarishte landfill, these issues seemed to disappear from the campaign debates once the election campaign began.
The promises of “systemic solutions” were reduced to promises to install new bins and purchase waste vehicles, plant new trees and build mini parks for the youngest, and no candidate offered a solution to deal with the illegal landfills that are sprouting up all over the country every day. Although the city of Skopje has been continuously facing serious ecocide, a huge rodent infestation, and the threat of an epidemic in recent years, and especially in the period between the two election rounds, none of the candidates offered a serious vision for better waste management in the new mandate.
In terms of social policies, instead of offering to improve existing and establish new services, all parties, regardless of ideological background, offered literally the same populist policies. As if it is an auction, the candidates competed to see who would provide higher one-time financial assistance packages for pensioners and students, vouchers for different services for the youngest, and subsidies for driver's license training, completely forgetting vulnerable and marginalized communities. The only positive aspect was that the construction of new kindergartens and renovation of schools were topics of discussion in almost every municipality.
Unlike the parliamentary elections, when the fight against corruption was one of the main topics, especially in the rhetoric of the then opposition VMRO-DPMNE, in these elections, along with municipal transparency, accountability, and integrity, they found themselves on the margins of the pre-election rhetoric.
Unfortunately, the only bright spot in the election campaign in terms of green and environmental policies, as in the past elections, remained the independent candidates. Independent civic movements and their current municipal councilors were the only ones in whose programs the word "green" appears more times than the program itself has pages. Their candidates, often using social media as a tool for alternative advertising, offered clear step-by-step solutions for dealing with polluted air, mass urbanization, improving utility services and public cleanliness, substantial greening of cities - rather than tree-by-tree green policies—energy efficiency, etc.
In the second round, despite lower turnout, the ruling parties confirmed their dominance, winning almost all the remaining municipalities (27/33). The election campaign between the two rounds was focused on building “hidden coalitions” between the parties for the second round instead of winning over the apathetic citizens. As before, ethnic voting was noticeable in many municipalities, but a positive example of interethnic cohesion were the elections in the municipality of Kichevo, where an ethnic Macedonian won with open support from all communities.
Dominance without deterrence: A rare window for breaking the EU’s padlock
After these local elections in North Macedonia, the decision-making process will unfold in a very different political atmosphere than ever before. The absolute victory of VMRO-DPMNE and its coalition partners in all three election cycles in the past year and a half - on one hand, and the completely fragmented and weakened opposition on the other, creates a risk of serious concentration of political power and erosion of democratic mechanisms of checks and balances.
But, strong political dominance in the absence of a serious opposition structure creates conditions in which even the most politically sensitive decisions can be made, such as the constitutional amendments currently necessary to continue the country’s EU integration path. The visit of Ursula von der Leyen, in the campaign’s peak and just five days before the elections, sent a clear message that “the ball is in our court; the EU is ready”. This further strengthened the impression of a potential synchronized political moment between Brussels and Skopje. The current position of power allows the ruling structure a rare window to break the EU integration padlock and to implement these changes with minimal risk to its political stability, even at the cost of a drop in ratings. Stable institutional control and a weak opposition can allow it to maintain stable government even after a possible loss of a significant portion of public support. However, this concentration of power poses a serious threat to the democratic landscape of the country, undermining checks and balances, inclusive debate, and the protection of minority rights.
[1] The Left Party is often perceived as a radical political option due to its radical ideological positions and confrontational approach. Its actions are often accompanied by harsh speech and threats towards political opponents, especially from its leadership. Although formally on the left spectrum, the Left combines socialist and nationalist elements and openly opposes NATO membership and the state's policies towards Western partners, Bulgaria and Greece, while cultivating close ties with communist entities in Russia and China.