„Zameci promjene: Održivom poljoprivredom do prosperiteta za Zapadni Balkan“

4              Table of Contents

7              Units and Abreviations
9              Acknowledgements
10             Foreword
12            Introduction — 1
18            Agriculture: an important pillar of the economy and society in the Western Balkans — 1.1
21            Positive Externalities: Agriculture and ecosystem services — 1.2
24            Negative externalities: Agriculture and hidden costs that are borne by others — 1.3
27            Unknown consequences of a wide-spread shift towards sustainable agriculture — 1.4
29            In a quest for a sustainable agriculture — 1.5
31            Organic farming as a “case” sustainable farming method — 1.6
40            Current Agricultural Systems and Policies in the Western Balkans — 2
43            Three types of systems for agricultural production — 2.1
45            The state of organic agriculture in the Western Balkans — 2.2
49            BiH – Stakeholders, Policies, Economic Instruments, and Human/Social capital — 2.3
58            Croatia – Stakeholders, Policies, Economic Instruments, and Human/Social capital —2.4
64            Montenegro – Stakeholders, Policies, Economic Instruments, and Human/Social capital — 2.5
73            Serbia – Stakeholders, Policies, Economic Instruments, and Human/Social capital — 2.6
85            Focus on Human and Social Capital Required —2.7
88            Research Framework and Methodology — 3
90            Objectives and relevance — 3.1
91            What do we want to assess? — 3.2
99            How do we want to assess it?— 3.3
104          Three development scenarios— 3.4
106          Obstacles— 3.5
108          Setting up the scenarios: The Business As Usual Scenario — 4
110          The Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario – General Assumptions — 4.1
111          The Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario – Specific assumptions — 4.2
114          Setting up the ECO and ECO+ scenarios: A total conversion to organic farming — 5
118          A total conversion to organic farming: Is it realistic? — 5.1
123          ECO and ECO+ scenarios – General assumptions — 5.2
125          ECO and ECO+ Scenarios – Specific assumptions in the comparison between the Baseline and Eco Scenarios — 5.3
155          ECO+ scenario — 5.4
157          Scenarios in a nutshell — 5.5
166          Analysis of The Baseline Situation — 6
166          Labour force — 6.1
168          Food production — 6.2
172          Real value added — 6.3
190          Results of Development Scenarios — 7
192          Labour forc — 7.1
194          Food production — 7.2
195          Real value added (RVA) — 7.3
208          Discussion on Employed Methodology and Reliability of Obtained Results — 8
201          Methodology employed — 8.1
215          Reliability of the obtained results — 8.2
218          Summary of Key Findings — 9
222          Key Finding #1: Agriculture in the Western Balkans does matter — 9.1
223          Key Finding #2: Current agricultural policies provide a “low profile” support to organic farming — 9.2
224          Key Finding #3: Current farming does not create any RVA — 9.3
225          Key Finding #4: Building soil fertility and human and social capital is the key for success — 9.4
226          Key Finding #5: Conversion to organic farming provides more jobs — 9.5
227          Key Finding #6: Conversion to organic farming produces more food — 9.6
228          Key Finding #7: Going organic is “greener” — 9.7
229          Key Finding #8: Going organic is more profitable — 9.8
230          Key Finding #9: Business as usual is not an option — 9.9
234          Recommendations – the way forward — 10
237          Shape an appropriate policy — 10.1
243          Additional policy areas — 10.2
251          Appendix I: Detailed Methodology
264          Appendix II: Calculation Tables
264          Baseline calculations
269          Development scenario calculations
274          Appendix III: References
302          List of tables
304          List of figures